Looking back to the development of DVD’s market price, it can be said that this stock has overcome two difficult periods, the first is 7.0 - 8.0 and the second is 8.1-9.2. In fact, the 500 dong decrease of DVD of the session in the end of 2009 is only a temporary change in the common trend of the market, and the moderate supply while the stable demand. In the first nine sessions of DVD from 22-12-2009 to 04-01-2010, the order of this stock fluctuated within 500-600 thousand units per session, but that increases up to millions of units in the four most recent sessions with the peak 2.3 million in Januray 05th. Meanwhile, the offer of DVD stock tends to gradually reduced from more than 600 in the first days of session to 200-300 thounsand units. It is not difficult to reveal to reasons of reducing adjustment of DVD in the session of weekend as follows:

First: In the next consecutive session of reducing adjustment, VN Index lost 12.44 points to 520 points. Accordingly, the similar movement of DVD is unavoidable. However, there reveals some positive points: DVD has gradually become a close stock with movement of VN Index, and to some extent, the investor can analyse the movement of this stock upon the common situation. On the other hand, if the adjustment is close to VN Index, as the recovery of the market, the purchasing power of DVD will be stronger than other standby stocks.

Second : As noted above, “point of fall” of DVD appears as this stock increase by 10 thousand VND/stock for 4 – 5 sessions. This is alleged attractive profit to a stock of which market price is classified as high as DVD. As regard the market price, stocks of 8.0-9.0 will be more “selective” to the investors because at this price, the purchaser has to own a relative capital to “follow” this stock for a long time. The participation of big investors in DVD transaction will help maintain the movement of market price in a safe range thereby limit extraordinary risks.

Accordingly, the movement of DVD in the next time is dependent on the three most important factors:

First, after the consevatively impressive increase of point in the last week, VN Index seems to be “colder” for the days left. The key of adjustment is the profit conclusion of series of investors but th eliquidity has been increased more than 80 million units/session. It can be inferred that there remains many bottom reaching forces. Accordingly, the possibility of promotion or stability of VN Index prevails over that of strong adjustment. Risks of common market of DVD may be minimized in short term. It should be further noted that, after DVD conclusion of the investors, if there maintain favorable movements, the investors will be back to disbursement of this stock to increase the cash flow.

Second, pharmaceutical stock is generally protective, meaning that its fluctuation is lower than that of common market. In case of DVD, it can be seen that this stock is now featuring the temporary or higher increase than that of the market. It shows that the expectation of the market to this stock is very high. A strong stock ensured by stable business can ensure the safety for the investors even the most careful. The supply – demand of DVD shows no signal of short-term reduction, and the possibility of fluctuation is apparent to DVD.  The trend of increase of VN Index is expectation of many people, but there will be no session of increase of 15-20 points, instead, there will be more adjusting sessions. Back to DVD, it can see that, the trend of increase of DVD is possible as the rapid increase of cash flow but there will be more difficult sessions. Therefore, the investors cannot wait for the massive increase, but instead, they have to seek to bottom reaching, or sell at peak to gain the optimal profit. In The transaction of DVD in the coming time will require more nerves and the most players are professional investors.

Third, the most valuable information of DVD in the coming time is business income of Quarter IV and the whole year of 2009. As noted, the gross profit margin ratio of DVD is equal to DMC and less than DHG of which the main reason is in cost accounting and character of sale operation.  nhưng nguyờn nhõn nằm ở chớnh sỏch hạch toỏn chi phớ và tớnh chất hoạt động bỏn hàng. In return, the proportion of selling expense per total revenue is low in comparison with the two competitors above. More likely, before tax profit margin of the Company is stable for 10-15%. According to Sacombank EPS Securities Company, price of DVD will reach up to 10.000 VND/stock in 2010, a high rate. As seen in the current market, stocks with EPS of more than 10.000 VND/stock must have market price of 9.0 or higher. At the moment, P/E 2010 of DVD is only more than 9 times showing that this stock has the extremely attractive price. Meanwhile, the common premises of P/E of pharmaceutical distribution enterprises in recent years has increased about  20 times. Also, enterprises in securities market are dealt within about 11 - 13 times. Accordingly, there is high possibility of price increase and excess to 10.0 of DVD in the coming time while other pricing indexes including P/B show that the reasonable price of this stock can reach up to range of 11.0-12.0

Therefore, in the next time, movement of DVD will be coherent with that of VN Index. The threshold of 10.0 will be reached but will be more difficult than the previous steps. Therefore, the distributing days at level of 10.0 will be longer than those at level of 8.0 and 9.0. however, the investors can utilize this chance to have reasonable transactions to gain the short-term profit. As reaching up to threshold of 10.0, the next target will be 12.0.

BICH THACH

Financial Investment , published 01/11/2010.